America and IranReaching out to Iran
Mar 20th 2009
From Economist.com
America's president calls for a new beginning in relations with Iran Get article background
BARACK OBAMA is making a determined effort to engage Iran. On Friday March 20th the president of America released a videotaped message to the Islamic Republic, offering a “new beginning” in relations between the two countries. In the recording, timed to mark the Iranian new year, Mr Obama called for a diplomatic process that “will not be advanced by threats. We seek instead engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect.” After three decades of a dialogue of the deaf, with a particularly antagonistic period when George Bush confronted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current Iranian president, the Great Satan is seeking to reopen a conversation.
Mr Obama has commissioned a re-examination of policy on Iran. Hillary Clinton, his secretary of state, in an early gesture of conciliation, has offered Iran a seat at a conference on Afghanistan that is to take place at the end of this month. All the signs are that, if America and others involved in the diplomatic effort to coax the mullahs into talks could find a way to overcome Iran’s continuing refusal to stop enriching uranium, Iran would be welcomed back as a recognised force in the region with a guaranteed role in any new security arrangement in the Gulf. That could make other problems easier to tackle.
It is a potentially rewarding time to try. In the next few months Iran's leaders, nudged by its people at presidential polls in June, will have to decide whether to return to the comity of nations or stick to their angry, self-isolating revolutionary rhetoric. An immediate response to Mr Obama's latest message came on Friday, from an aide to Mr Ahmadinejad, suggesting that Iran may be open to dialogue. “The Iranian nation has shown that it can forget hasty behaviour but we are awaiting practical steps by the United States”, said Aliakbar Javanfekr, although he added that Iran’s government expects to see “fundamental changes” in America’s policy to the country.
Fathoming the intentions of the men in turbans who run Iran has long proved one of the hardest of diplomatic tasks. It is a prickly country, proud of its history and wary of the other great peoples—Arabs, Turks and Russians—who ring it. America is all around it too: in Turkey, a vital member of NATO; in Iraq, where it still has more than 130,000 troops, despite a gradual drawdown; in Afghanistan, to which Mr Obama has promised to send another 17,000 soldiers to add to the 38,000 already there; and just across the Gulf in Bahrain, a statelet that Iran in its feistier moments claims as its own, where America anchors its Fifth Fleet. Most Iranians think that foreigners, especially Americans, Britons and Arabs, are still determined to do their country down.
Persian pride thus dictates that if the regional likes of Pakistan, India and Israel can have nuclear power—and the bomb—then surely so should Iran, though it vehemently denies any intention to build nuclear weapons. Most of the rest of the world, led by the Americans and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council, including China and Russia, disagree with differing levels of firmness. Three Security Council resolutions in recent years have imposed targeted sanctions on the Islamic Republic for refusing to stop enriching uranium, a potential bomb ingredient. Israel, in particular, is appalled by the prospect of Iran having the bomb.
The candidates now limbering up to fight for Iran’s presidency are a varied bunch. The most dialogue-minded of them, Muhammad Khatami, a former reformist president, has just dropped out of the race. He may, however, now back a tougher reformist alternative in the person of Mir Hosein Mousavi, prime minister during Iran’s war with Iraq in the 1980s. For his part, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a belligerent, Holocaust-denying populist, is determined to stay put, with the Revolutionary Guard behind him. For now, he seems also to have the backing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a cleric anointed by the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding father of a revolutionary theocratic Iran.
And there is the nub of Mr Obama’s problem—and Iran’s. It is Mr Khamenei, not the president, who ultimately calls the shots in foreign policy, including nuclear matters. A strict vetting system can block the candidacy in elections of anyone deemed too liberal or too secular. Mr Ahmadinejad has made a hash of the economy, so there is at least a chance he could be defeated at the polls by a more pragmatic figure. But all candidates will support continuing the nuclear programme. Even if a reformist won, he would not necessarily bring harmony to Iran’s relations with America and the outside world.
Time, however, is running short. Israel’s probable new government, if sufficiently alarmed, could decide to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities even without an American green light. Mr Obama will seek to persuade others, especially Russia, to tighten sanctions and thus strengthen his hand. Ideas for putting in place the conditions to get talks going include a time-limited suspension of uranium enrichment in return for freezing sanctions; removing stocks of low-enriched uranium (which, enriched further, could make a bomb) for fashioning into reactor fuel abroad; and setting up an international consortium to manage enrichment in Iran with UN monitoring (though this would help it hone its suspect nuclear skills).
Iran has much to gain by showing a readiness to limit its nuclear ambition. It may never do so, even at the risk of being bombed. So far it has shown little sign of flexibility towards Mr Obama. But he should still have one more try.